UK and France Will Dispatch Forces to Ukraine if a Peace Deal is Agreed

The UK and France have signed a declaration of intent concerning the stationing of troops in Ukraine if a peace agreement be made with Russia, the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has announced.

After discussions with allied nations in the French capital, he said that the allies would "set up military hubs across Ukraine and construct protected installations for arms and military equipment" to discourage any subsequent incursion.

The coalition members also put forward that the US would take the lead in verifying a ceasefire.

The Kremlin has on multiple occasions cautioned that any external forces in Ukraine would be considered a "valid objective", but has as yet not responded on this recent development.

Context and Continuing Conflict

The Kremlin's head Vladimir Putin initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, and Russia at this time holds roughly 20% of Ukraine's sovereign soil.

"This represents an essential component of our vow to stand with Ukraine for the duration," commented the UK Prime Minister.

Top officials and senior officials from the "Partner Group" participated in the recent discussions.

Addressing reporters at a joint press conference, the Prime Minister noted: "It creates the pathway for the legal framework under which British, French, and partner forces could function on Ukrainian soil, defending Ukraine's air and maritime domains, and rebuilding Ukraine's defense capabilities for the years ahead."

The PM also stated that the UK would take part in any US-led monitoring of a potential ceasefire.

Defense Assurances and Diplomatic Positions

Top American diplomat Steve Witkoff remarked that "long-term defense assurances and strong economic promises are critical to a enduring ceasefire" in Ukraine – mentioning a key condition made by Ukraine.

He noted the coalition had "substantially agreed on" their work on establishing such pledges "so that the citizens of Ukraine know that when this conflict ends, it ends forever."

The former US envoy, former American President Donald Trump's representative, also was involved in the negotiations.

Meanwhile, France's leader Emmanuel Macron declared that Ukraine's supporters had made "significant headway" at the talks.

He noted that "comprehensive" security guarantees for the Ukrainian government had been agreed in the instance of a potential ceasefire.

Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelensky stated that a "major step forward" had been made in the negotiations, but added that he would only consider efforts to be "sufficient" if they led to the end of the conflict.

Last week, Zelensky suggested a peace deal was "90% ready". Settling the outstanding 10% would "decide the outcome of peace, the destiny of Ukraine and Europe".

Remaining Challenges

• Territory and defense assurances have been at the forefront of unresolved issues for diplomats.
• The Russian President has repeatedly warned that Kyiv's military must withdraw from the entirety of Ukraine's eastern Donbas or Russia will occupy it, refusing any compromise over how to end the war.
• Zelensky has so far ruled out ceding any territory, but has suggested that Ukraine could withdraw its troops to an mutually accepted point – but only if Russia reciprocates.

Russia currently occupies about 75% of the Donetsk oblast and around 99% of the adjacent Luhansk. The pair of oblasts form the heartland of Donbas.

The initial US-led multi-point peace plan that was extensively reported to the media last year was seen by Kyiv and its EU supporters as being disproportionately favorable in Russia's direction.

This triggered a period of intensive negotiations – with the involved parties trying to adjust the document.

The previous month, Ukraine sent the US an revised framework – as well as additional documents describing potential security guarantees and arrangements for Ukraine's reconstruction, Zelensky said.