Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Serious Barriers in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
